Wednesday, December 02, 2009

The Martin Biron Trade Rumors

For the last month, there have been rumors of goaltender Martin Biron being dealt after Islanders All-Star goalie Rick DiPietro returns to action. Ever since an announcement was made here that DiPietro would return in mid December, people had been asking me if trading Biron was a possibility before Christmas. Before I go any further, I wanted to know who was interested in Biron, and what could he bring back. After talking to a lot of people who love the rumor industry, I took the three teams who were mentioned the most. They were the following: Detroit Red Wings, L.A. Kings and the Buffalo Sabres. Surprised? You shouldn't be, there the same three teams that have been rumored for the last two months, but this is what the Islanders are currently working with.

So what could the Islanders get out of any of those teams? I did my own research and I asked around for some help on trade values of certain players. This is what I came up with. Despite having a better save percentage (big influence in trading for goalies by the way)  than both Chris Osgood and Jonathan Quick, Biron would be there backup. There is no question that Martin would be Ryan Millers backup. So even if Biron can pull together a few more wins, he will still be considered a backup for this season. What do these three trading partners have in common? Young defensive prospects, similar to a Matt Moulson situation, a player who has NHL potential but no room on there respective teams.

Now trade rumors are really just for fans to stay interested all year long with there favorite team, so after researching certain players, I simply asked 20 die hard and extremely knowledgeable fans (Thank you Anthony) from each team if they would like to trade a certain prospect from their farm team for Biron. Here were the results: Detroit fans would rather give the Islanders a second or third rounder; L.A said yes to the deal, and Buffalo fans were an eager yes.

I had more detail, but I as I had a few proofread my work to see if the blog was actually legit, I was asked to hold off on the blog for a few days because it might get longer. Never having a "source" in my life, I took this person by their word, and held off. A few days later, Larry Brooks wrote here that Garth Snow has permission to increase pay roll for a run at the playoffs. Now that changed everything and the rumors got worse over the next day while  people play GM and trading players, picks so that everything looked good on paper and gave their favorite team a chance at the playoffs.

This is what Islanders fans should know before trading anybody. Without DP in the lineup and taking into account the winning percentage of the Islanders record at home (5 more games at home than away for the remainder of the season), the Islanders are on pace for 85 points. Now if the Islanders forwards can actually score for DP like they do for Roloson and earn an extra point here and there, the Islanders will probably flirt with 90 points. Mind you, that's without trading anybody.....90 points.

I asked around if the Islanders should be trading now? I was answered with an emphatic no!!   To make the point clearer, a day later I read this quote from Lyle Richardson of Spector's Hockey.

The salary cap prohibits struggling teams from making any significant early season roster changes like trades. Forget about the nonsense floating around the internet about "big moves", the last one which happened before the holiday trade freeze was four years ago today (the Joe Thornton trade). What trades that do happen are usually relatively minor deals involving the exchange of equal salaries (last week's Latendresse-for-Pouliot trade).  
So Islanders fans as you begin this December, here are some things to know:

Biron will not be traded until DP has played a few games (like 10) and there are no recurring injuries to him or Roloson.
Biron could fetch a 3rd or 2nd rounder no matter what time in the season, or a decent prospect stated above.
If there are players traded, it won't be until mid-January at the earliest.
There has been enough scouting in their own organization to know that if certain players are traded from the Islanders, they earned it.

For now, enjoy the games and the rumors, just don't jump ahead to the future, enjoy your present.

Update: I was asked to add Colorado to that mix now.  According to Anthony Curatolo of Crash the Crease & The Hockey Guys,  Colorado has ZERO faith in Budaj (hence Anderson getting ALL the starts) and they have plenty to move.  If it's a bit bigger from the Isles end, it could be a perfect scenario.

1 comment:

Anthony said...

great read paul
valdoid points and great to get the "fans" view on it as well

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